diff --git a/migration/migration.c b/migration/migration.c
index 047b6b49cf..9fe8fd2afd 100644
--- a/migration/migration.c
+++ b/migration/migration.c
@@ -3199,17 +3199,16 @@ typedef enum {
  */
 static MigIterateState migration_iteration_run(MigrationState *s)
 {
-    uint64_t must_precopy, can_postcopy;
+    uint64_t must_precopy, can_postcopy, pending_size;
     Error *local_err = NULL;
     bool in_postcopy = s->state == MIGRATION_STATUS_POSTCOPY_ACTIVE;
     bool can_switchover = migration_can_switchover(s);
 
     qemu_savevm_state_pending_estimate(&must_precopy, &can_postcopy);
-    uint64_t pending_size = must_precopy + can_postcopy;
-
+    pending_size = must_precopy + can_postcopy;
     trace_migrate_pending_estimate(pending_size, must_precopy, can_postcopy);
 
-    if (must_precopy <= s->threshold_size) {
+    if (pending_size < s->threshold_size) {
         qemu_savevm_state_pending_exact(&must_precopy, &can_postcopy);
         pending_size = must_precopy + can_postcopy;
         trace_migrate_pending_exact(pending_size, must_precopy, can_postcopy);